Which are constantly changing.
Although macroeconomics does not take into account the processes occurring within macroeconomic markets, the macroeconomics course studies the interaction of these markets and builds, on their basis, theories of general equilibrium across the entire economy and the theory of macroeconomic dynamics (i.e., the theory of economic growth and economic cyclicality).
Macroeconomics studies the scale of the economy (in particular the scale of production and the scale of prices) and changes in the scale of the economy, abstracting from changes in proportions that are studied in microeconomics. Those. macroeconomics will not, for example, be interested in the relationship between the prices of different goods, but will be interested in their joint changes during inflationary processes.
Also, the sphere of interests of macroeconomics includes global quantitative relationships in the economy, while qualitative analysis of these relationships belongs rather to the sphere of interests of General Economic Theory, rather than to macroeconomic analysis. And since macroeconomics only builds models of an applied nature, it should not be blamed for errors associated with the underdevelopment of the theoretical base.
The main methods of macroeconomics are:
Aggregation, i.e. constructing summary indicators that describe the entire economy, for example, instead of many indicators describing individual economic entities and individual markets;
Abstraction, which in macroeconomics means the refusal to analyze individual characteristics and insignificant aggregate indicators;
Verbal and Mathematical Modeling, i.e. presentation of macroeconomics as a set of relationships that can be described by logical and mathematical formulas. Moreover, mathematical models in macroeconomics at the current stage are the main tool for analysis and forecasting.
The goals of macroeconomic modeling are to determine the optimal (equilibrium) state of the economy to which it strives; as well as macroeconomic forecasting, including forecasting such macroeconomic parameters as gross product, price level or inflation, employment or ... I.e. the goals of macroeconomic analysis are of a social and state nature, which means that it is the representatives who should use macroeconomic analysis state power. They, however, have their own vision of the goals of macroeconomic research, because they demand that macroeconomics (as a science) provide tools for managing the economy so that everything is obedient to the state.
This course consists of two parts:
1) analysis of individual markets in macroeconomics (meaning the analysis of the following macroeconomic markets: the goods market; the labor market; the money market and the capital market);
2) analysis of the interaction of macroeconomic markets in the process of establishing general economic equilibrium, as well as in the process of dynamic changes in the economic system.
We will look at three types of macroeconomic dynamics:
1) economic cyclicality;
2) inflationary process;
3) .
This macroeconomics course is intended primarily for students of economics, but, as you know, it is desirable for everyone to know economics, and in particular macroeconomics! This course was originally created as a standard macroeconomics course for distance learning, but the author very soon noticed that the methods of standard macroeconomics were, to put it mildly, incorrect in some cases. As a result, the standard macroeconomics course was supplemented with non-standard models. And it seems to the author that in this form macroeconomic theory better describes reality.
You can select any topic here, by going to which you will get access to the full macroeconomics textbook and its abbreviated version, as well as examples and models illustrating the macroeconomics textbook; and also tasks for reflection. Registered users of the site also have the opportunity to request advice on macroeconomics. For the convenience of users, we simultaneously place tasks on macroeconomics in a separate section.
Macroeconomics theory
Despite the fact that macroeconomic questions were posed and studied back in the 18th century (starting with the work of D. Hume in 1752, devoted to the study of the connections between the balance of trade and the price level), macroeconomics as a science appeared only in the 30s - 40s XX century. The catalyst for this was the Great Depression of the 1930s, which led to a huge decline in production in most Western countries, thereby creating unprecedented unemployment, as a result of which a significant part of the population of these countries was on the brink of poverty. Democratization that took place after the First World War also played an important role. The democratic government was concerned about the catastrophic decline in the standard of living of the population and needed to develop economic ways to combat the depression.The appearance in 1936 of the work of the English economist John Maynard Keynes " General theory employment, interest and money” laid the foundation for macroeconomics as an independent economic science. Keynes's central idea is that one is not always capable of self-regulation, as the classics believed, since there may be a certain price rigidity. In this case, the economy cannot independently recover from depression due to the price mechanism, but intervention in the form of stimulation is required. The emergence of the Keynesian approach was subsequently called the “Keynesian revolution” in economics.
It should also be noted one more circumstance that contributed to the development of macroeconomics. This is the emergence of regular national accounts statistics. The availability of data made it possible to observe and describe the dynamics and relationships of macroeconomic phenomena, which is the first necessary step for the development of macroeconomic science.
In the process of development in macroeconomics, two main schools have emerged.
The classical school believed that free markets themselves would lead the economy to equilibrium in the labor market (to full employment) and efficient distribution of resources and, accordingly, there was no need for government intervention.
The Keynesian school proceeded from the presence of a certain inflexibility of prices and, therefore, the failure of the market mechanism in terms of achieving , in particular this related to the presence of disequilibrium in the labor market, at least in the short term. As a result, such failure of the market mechanism requires government intervention, taking the form of stabilization policy.
The Keynesian model described the economy quite adequately and was widely used until the 70s of the 20th century. In the 70s, a new problem arose: a combination of stagnation and high inflation. Many saw the reason for this situation in the government's active intervention in the economy. The so-called Keynesian counter-revolution took place. The answer was a revision of the classical paradigm and the emergence of the doctrine of monetarism, led by its founder Milton Friedman. They returned to the idea of self-regulating markets and made the supply of money central. A stable money supply, rather than continuously changing it to pursue activist Keynesian policies, is the key to a stable macroeconomic situation, according to monetarists. Monetarism gave rise to a new wave of economic theories that were based on the self-regulation of markets and formed neoclassical macroeconomics.
In parallel, an alternative neo-Keynesian direction developed, but now on the basis of corresponding microeconomic behavioral models.
Problems of macroeconomics
Macroeconomics is a science that studies the behavior of the economy as a whole or its large aggregates (aggregates), while the economy is considered as a complex large single hierarchically organized system, as a set of economic processes and phenomena and their indicators. Macroeconomics is a section economic theory.Unlike microeconomics, which studies the economic behavior of individual (individual) economic entities (consumer or producer) in individual markets, macroeconomics studies the economy as a whole. Explores problems common to the entire economy and operates with aggregate values, such as gross domestic product, national income, aggregate demand, aggregate consumption, investment, the general price level, unemployment rate, public debt, etc.
The main problems that macroeconomics studies are: economic growth and its pace; economic cycle and its causes; employment level and unemployment problem; general price level and the problem of inflation; interest rate level and money circulation problems; state, the problem of financing the budget deficit and the problem of public debt; state and problems of the exchange rate; problems of macroeconomic policy.
Methods of macroeconomics
A method is understood as a set of methods, techniques, forms of studying the subject of a given science, i.e. specific tools scientific research.Macroeconomics uses both general and specific methods of study.
General scientific methods include:
Method of scientific abstraction;
- and synthesis;
- method of unity of historical and logical;
- system-functional analysis;
- economic and mathematical modeling;
- a combination of normative and positive approaches.
The main specific method of macroeconomics is macroeconomic aggregation, the combination of phenomena and processes into a single whole. Aggregated values characterize the market value and its changes (market interest rate, GDP, GNP, general price level, inflation rate, unemployment rate, etc.). Macroeconomic aggregation extends to economic entities (households, firms, government, abroad) and markets (goods and services, securities, money, labor, real capital, international, foreign exchange).
In macroeconomics, economic models are widely used - formalized descriptions (logical, graphic, algebraic) of various economic phenomena and processes to detect functional relationships between them.
Macroeconomic models allow us to abstract from minor elements and focus on the main elements of the system and their interrelations. Macroeconomic models, being an abstract expression of economic reality, cannot be comprehensive, therefore in macroeconomics there are many different models that can be classified according to various criteria:
By the degree of generalization (abstract theoretical and concrete economic);
- according to the degree of structuring (small-sized and multi-sized);
- from the point of view of the nature of the relationship of elements (linear and nonlinear);
- by degree of coverage (open and closed: closed - for studying closed; open - for studying international economic relations);
- taking into account time as a factor determining phenomena and processes (static - the time factor is not taken into account; dynamic - time acts as a factor, etc.).
There are many different models in macroeconomics: the circular flow model; Keynes cross; IS-LM model; Baumol-Tobin model; Marx's model; Solow model; Domar model; Harrod model; the Samuelson-Hicks model, etc. All of them act as a common toolkit, without having any national characteristics.
In each macroeconomic model, the selection of factors that would be significant for the macroanalysis of a specific problem in a specific period of time is extremely important.
In each model, two types of variables are distinguished:
A) exogenous;
b) endogenous.
The first ones are introduced into the model from the outside; they are specified before the model is built. This is the background information.
The latter arise within the model in the process of solving the stated problem and are the result of its solution.
When building models, four types of functional dependencies are used:
A) definitional;
b) behavioral;
c) technological;
d) institutional.
Definitional (from Latin definitio - definition) reflect the content or structure of the phenomenon or process being studied. For example, the aggregate demand in the goods market is understood as the total demand of households, the investment demand of the business sector, the demand of the state and abroad.
Behavioral - show the preferences of economic subjects.
Technological - characterize technological dependencies in the economy, reflect connections determined by the level of development of productive forces, scientific and technological progress. An example is a production function showing the relationship between volume and factors of production:
Institutional - express institutionally established dependencies; determine the connections between certain economic indicators and government institutions that regulate.
Development of macroeconomics
Let us make an important, in our opinion, remark. Everyone has their own optimal level. If this indicator reaches its critical value, then this is bad. For example, zero unemployment, no inflation, full production capacity utilization have the same negative impact on the ECONOMY as high level unemployment, hyperinflation and unutilized production capacity. The existence of a theoretically optimal level of any macroeconomic indicator is determined by the model of the struggle between supply and demand. In addition, when any indicator reaches its critical values, the economy loses room for maneuver. For example, the money supply can be increased by lowering the interest rate. If it already has a zero value, then we will be deprived of the opportunity to carry out this corrective action. Even if this rate is not zero, there is a certain critical value after which its reduction has no impact on the economy. Imagine a car engine that is constantly running at the limit of its capabilities. How long will it work? However, sometimes some countries can, at least temporarily, neutralize the critical values of macroeconomic parameters with original economic decisions. A striking example of this situation is the Japanese economy. In this unique country, the central bank policy rate is 0.5%, and inflation is negative, while the Japanese economy is still developing well.Let us note one more feature of market variability and inconstancy. If the pace of economic development is too fast, it can quickly become overheated, followed by a recession that is usually as rapid as the previous recovery. Therefore, the task of government regulation is not only to promote economic development, but also to regulate the speed of growth. Uniform economic development can last much longer than rapid growth, and the level and speed of decline will be much less. In addition, with moderate economic growth, the amplitude of fluctuations in parameters around the average (equilibrium) state will be smaller and, therefore, easier to keep under control.
For most macroeconomic indicators, what is important is not their absolute values, but the predictability of changes and the ability to control these indicators. For example, the most dangerous thing is not a high level of inflation, but inflation that is out of control and is not predictable.
In addition, the impact of published economic indicators on the financial market is determined, again, not by their meaning, but by the expectations of market participants. Thus, if excellent economic indicators have been coming out for a long time, then some market participants may decide that the economy is in excellent condition, while others may decide that it is already in an “overheated” state, after which a recession is inevitable. Time will determine which opinion will win in the market. Moreover, the result of this struggle may in no way correlate with the real economic state of the country. Changes in prices and, especially in exchange rates, that occurred as a result of such a struggle could negatively affect the country's economy. Therefore, it is difficult to make an unambiguous conclusion about what is the root cause of such a situation: the truly “overheated” state of the economy, which led to a recession and the winners in the market correctly guessed this state; or the victory of these participants in the market led to changes in exchange rates, which, in turn, negatively affected the economy.
For macroeconomic analysis, the greatest interest is not the absolute values of certain indicators, but their changes. Therefore, most indicators are published as percentages relative to the previous period. Usually the comparison occurs with the previous month, quarter, year. And it is the analysis of the direction and rate of change of the indicator, as well as its comparison with changes in other indicators, that makes it possible to predict the development of the economy of a particular country.
Macroeconomics concept
Unlike microeconomics, which analyzes how economic entities behave and how they interact, macroeconomics examines the laws of behavior of the economy as a whole. It would seem that it is known how the individual elements of the whole behave, then it is enough to add them up to get an idea of the whole. Meanwhile, this is not so. When added, new phenomena, concepts, mechanisms and patterns appear that cannot be understood while remaining within the framework of the behavior of consumers and producers. For example, so far we have looked at individual products, of which there are a great many on the markets. Adding up oil, coal, vegetables, grains, banking services, financial transactions, etc., we get a certain amount. It is called the national product, which has no tangible form and exists, it would seem, only in the imagination of economists. Meanwhile, this is a very real concept, and so key that the size of employment and unemployment, the economic power of states, and much more depend on it. Busy people with a keen understanding of business affairs may have little understanding of how the economy as a whole behaves. Meanwhile, their fate largely depends on this, and not just on the market where these firms operate. For example, many now blame this or that industry, this or that enterprise for the fact that they do not work well. But if the entire economy is in deep crisis and stagnation, i.e. works poorly, then blaming individual firms for sluggishness and inability to adapt to new circumstances is not always fair, and sometimes simply ridiculous. Just like blaming an unemployed or low-paid worker for “not wanting to work.” Lazy people, of course, are everywhere, but they don’t make the weather. Very often, people and companies become victims of circumstances over which they have no control. But it would be equally absurd to blame everything on “fate”, the “wheel of history”, etc. Economic science gives every educated person the opportunity to understand why the economy as a whole behaves this way and not otherwise, and even learn to predict how things are going in the entire national economy, and not just in the sector that directly concerns you. Macroeconomics largely depends on the behavior of the state, its macroeconomic policy, and on ongoing and planned reforms. In a democratic society, citizens must understand these issues if they want to actively influence their own destinies and not just be passive objects of experiments by some rulers and politicians. In macroeconomics, not only all products and services are added up, but also their prices and, therefore, income from factors of production. And it turns out that the general price level is determined not only by the laws of supply and demand we have discussed, but also by certain financial categories, such as the amount of money in circulation, the budget deficit, the rate of interest, etc. We already talked about these concepts in the first section, but only in passing. Meanwhile, they deserve special attention, because Not a single market economy, or indeed any economy, can do without them. As a result, monetary and financial flows are formed in the macroeconomy, which seem to oppose the material flows of products. They are not just a passive reflection of material flows, but play an active role and have special patterns, without which it is simply impossible to understand the behavior of the modern economy.Functions of macroeconomics
Macroeconomics performs the following main functions:1. cognitive, because it studies and explains economic processes in macroeconomics,
2. practical, since it gives recommendations for carrying out,
3. prognostic, because it evaluates promising options for macroeconomic dynamics,
4. ideological, because affecting the interests of the entire society, it shapes the economics of its members.
The main economic actors in macroeconomics are:
1. Households;
2. Enterprises and firms;
3. State;
4. Foreign countries (participants in foreign economic relations).
All subjects of macroeconomics, carrying out economic activities, rely on their interests and motives, react to changes in the general and private economic situation, to the actions of other subjects, both internal and external (abroad). When considering the behavior of economic entities, it is necessary as an alternative, meaning the possibility of different (at least two) options for economic behavior in a given situation.
This is due to the possibility and need to obtain alternative (income). The owner of resources (means of production or labor) could have received such a benefit with another, alternative option for their use, if he had not abandoned it (or perhaps if he had noticed it) in favor of the option that actually took place. This feature of the behavior of subjects is important to know and take into account when forecasting economic growth of the macroeconomy in a number of other situations.
The behavior of subjects in connection with their expectations is also interesting and significant for macroeconomics. Expectations are an assessment of the current economic situation from the perspective of the past or future period. Hence there are two types of expectations: based on the past and based on the future.
There are three types of expectations from the perspective of the future:
1 - statistical, which means that subjects are guided by the immutability and preservation of the economic situation;
2 - adaptive, meaning that subjects adapt their behavior to obvious or identified changes in the situation;
3 – rational expectations are the rational behavior of subjects based on the collection and analysis of the entire set of information about changes in the economy in the future period.
Objectives of macroeconomics
The economy of any state cannot develop without defining the goal of its development. is one of the main functions of economic policy. In each specific period of economic development, it determines the most important tasks facing the economy.An economic goal is understood as the main direction of economic development, which is revealed through the assigned tasks.
Over the entire period of development of society, a fairly large number of goals have been put forward as the most important goals underlying economic policy. Let's give them brief description.
1. Economic growth. The named economic goal for implementation requires, first of all, the solution of a number of problems. Economic growth can be achieved through the most efficient use of all available resources and the achievement of the maximum possible employment. Economic growth presupposes that the volume of national production in the current period exceeds the volume of production obtained in the previous period.
8. Trade balance. This goal means that each state, participating in the international division of labor and entering into international ones, should not “live in debt” at the expense of other states, i.e. it is necessary that the quantity of goods sold coincide in price with the quantity of goods purchased from other countries . To achieve this goal, the government must create a system of incentives for national production that make national products competitive in the world market.
To determine the general direction of development national economy the state puts forward one or another goal, or several goals at once.
An important condition for goal setting is their compatibility, since the named goals may contradict each other. For example, if two goals are simultaneously put forward: economic efficiency and full employment, the state will not be able to achieve either of them, or one will be achieved to the detriment of the other. Economic efficiency presupposes the use of the best resources supplied by the factors of production, while achieving full employment presupposes the employment of everyone who wants to work, although not all participants in production will have sufficiently high (equal) qualifications.
Assessment of the performance of the economy based on the implementation of set goals is carried out using the calculation of macroeconomic indicators.
Main macroeconomic indicators are the following:
1. Gross domestic product (GDP).
2. Gross national product (GNP).
3. Net national product (NNP).
4. National Doen.
5. Personal income.
6. Disposable income.
7. Disposable income.
Gross domestic product is the value of final products created over a certain period of time by producers producing in the territory of a given country using factors of production located in the territory of that country. Gross domestic product is equal to gross national product in a closed economy.
Gross national product is the material goods and services produced in the economy over a certain period of time (usually a year) through the use of factors of production owned by citizens of a given country, including on the territory of other countries.
Material goods and services are understood as goods that are purchased during the year for final consumption and are not used as an intermediate product for further processing.
Gross national product is calculated in several forms.
Initially, nominal GNP is calculated - the amount of goods and services produced by a nation during the year, calculated at current prices. This product includes the increase in the product due to the increase in inflation. Therefore, to reflect the real picture, it is necessary to calculate real GNP.
Real GNP is understood as the amount of final goods and services produced by a nation during the year and calculated taking into account inflationary increases in prices.
In addition, to regulate the economy, another indicator is calculated, which makes it possible to develop the main directions in regulating the economy - potential GNP.
Potential GNP is the amount of goods and services that could be created if the economy had the most rational distribution of product and the maximum possible employment. This is impossible in a market economy, so this indicator is calculated as a theoretical value desirable for the economy. The difference between potential and actual GNP is the GNP deficit. The task of the state economy is to reduce the GNP deficit.
Even the real BHII has significant errors, since it includes repeated counting, i.e. for one industry the product created by it is final, but for another it is intermediate or raw material. If we are freed from re-counting, we will get the net national product (NNP).
Net national product (NNP) is equal to the difference between real gross national product (GNP) and depreciation charges (A).
Depreciation charges (A) are understood as those made for the restoration of fixed capital spent in the production process, i.e., funds necessary to replace equipment, machinery and mechanisms worn out during the reporting period (year).
NNP=GNP-A.
The gross national product is calculated in two main forms: in natural material form and in monetary or value form.
The cost form of GNP makes it possible to compare the functioning of the economy in different periods.
The natural-material form of GNP allows for the distribution of the product into personal consumption, industrial consumption and government consumption. All manufactured product is produced for the purpose of consumption by three main entities: households, firms and the state. If a society produces more of a personal consumption product, then households should receive income sufficient to consume the entire product produced. If a society has created more products for state consumption, then with the help of taxes, income will be redistributed in favor of the state so that the product is also fully consumed, and “extra” money does not accumulate in the hands of other entities due to the lack of opportunity to spend it.
Another important indicator is the national one - the amount of goods that was created by the nation during the period of its existence.
One of the central categories of macroeconomics is the price level (P). In macroeconomics, there is an indicator characterizing the level of price changes. It is calculated as the ratio of the sum of prices of consumer goods of the current period to the sum of prices of consumer goods of the previous period. Consumer price index:
P0 is the sum of prices of consumer goods over the past period;
?P1 is the sum of prices of consumer goods for the current period.
All NNP consists of goods and services for personal and industrial consumption. Goods and services produced for personal consumption are called consumer goods, and the prices set for them are called consumer prices.
It should be noted that the range of consumer goods includes a number of products necessary for normal consumption. Their minimum set is called the “consumer basket” (?P). The calculation of the consumer basket serves to determine the minimum pension, benefits and other social payments controlled or carried out by the state.
By calculating the consumer basket, the inflation rate is determined.
Net national product includes enterprise profits and wages.
After paying payroll taxes, the population receives personal income in the form of nominal wages - a sum of cash.
Personal income is not the amount of money that a person can spend, because in society there are taxes and mandatory payments that each income recipient must pay.
If we subtract all taxes and mandatory payments and add direct transfers, then we will get disposable income, i.e. the amount of money that a person can spend at his own discretion.
In addition to direct transfers in the form of pensions and scholarships, there are indirect transfer payments in the form of maintaining social low prices for a number of products, for transport, medicine, education, to make these benefits more accessible.
Direct and indirect transfers are understood as government expenditures to maintain a normal standard of living for various categories of the population, carried out without taking into account labor costs.
Disposable income is also influenced by a number of factors:
Self-service;
self-sufficiency;
;
ecology;
leisure.
For example, self-care and self-sufficiency lead to an increase in disposable income based on creating services for oneself (laundry) or products (vegetables and fruits grown in the country).
Deterioration of environmental indicators, on the contrary, leads to an increase in costs associated with maintaining health.
Object of macroeconomics
The modern science of a socially regulated market economy has been created over more than half a century in two stages. First, a theory was formed to explain the behavior of a market subject within the local market. This outlined the sphere of private business. The emergence of microeconomics and the microeconomic theory that studies it marked a qualitative leap in the development of economic science, because it was microeconomics that reduced the behavior of individual producers and consumers to the rational market logic of the actions of the buyer and seller - to the desire to achieve the maximum net benefit.Macroeconomic theory is the most complex and, at the same time, important section of economic science. Within the framework of economic theory, macroeconomics is represented as a set of aggregated economic indicators. Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that studies economic phenomena such as inflation, labor productivity growth rates, interest rates, unemployment, and economic growth. For the analysis of macroeconomics, three methods are important: “mathematical”, “balance sheet” and “statistical”. The main parameters of macroeconomics are quantitatively measurable. This is why macroeconomic models take the form of mathematical equations. Macroeconomic models are balanced, which assumes that all markets ensure equality in sales volumes of production, income and expenses, aggregate demand and aggregate supply. And although in reality such macroeconomic equilibrium is unattainable, it is the desire for an equilibrium state that distinguishes macroeconomics from microeconomics.
Indeed, temporary disequilibrium in the micromarket provides superiority to either the buyer or the seller. But in macroeconomics, such disequilibrium brings only losses to society. Thus, only balance can provide macroeconomics with efficiency. The specificity of macroeconomic analysis is determined by those processes and problems that are detected only at the macroeconomic level and which can only be solved by macroeconomic means. We are talking about the interdependence of seven macroeconomic parameters - employment, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, national income, inflation, economic growth, business cycle. Within the macroeconomic approach, the economy appears as a single, extremely generalized market in which “one total buyer” (consumer), spending “a single total income,” and “one total seller” (producer), incurring a “single total expense,” interact. This aggregate seller produces a single aggregate product that is equally suitable for personal and productive consumption.
In macroeconomics, the two subjects of the market economy are joined by two new ones: “state” and “abroad”. Doubling the number of subjects and the specific problems arising from this complicate macroeconomic analysis; it is carried out in two stages: first, the specifics of the functioning mechanism of each market separately (the market for goods, labor, money and securities) are clarified, and then all these markets are balanced within the framework of a single macromarket.
Market models are divided into “statistical” and “dynamic”. A statistical model is a kind of “freeze frame” that captures the economic process in its initial and final state. The transition itself from the initial to the final state is not reflected in statistical models. The fundamental concept of macroeconomic theory is the category of “economic equilibrium”. Macroeconomic equilibrium means a state of the national economy when equality of supply and demand is simultaneously established in all markets. Economic equilibrium occupies a central place in macroeconomic theory because it expresses the optimal state of the economy and therefore forms a criterion for an objective assessment of the real situation in the country's economy. The movement towards economic equilibrium is the desire for equilibrium prices, full employment, overcoming inflation and sustainable economic growth. At the same time, it should be recognized that macroeconomic equilibrium is only an ideal structure; in reality it is not achievable. The following conditions are accepted as the initial and mandatory prerequisites for macroeconomic equilibrium:
1. equality of volumes of total production of goods and total purchase and sale of goods (everything that is produced is sold);
2. none of the economic entities is interested in changing the volume of their market transactions;
3. Failures in production and delays in the sale of goods are excluded.
Main macroeconomic problems Macroeconomics is a science that studies the economy as a whole, as well as its most important sectors and markets. The term “macro” (large) indicates that the subject of study of this science is large-scale economic problems. Macroeconomics represents one of the youngest and most promising branches of economic theory. Macroeconomics began to take shape as an independent scientific discipline in the 30s of the twentieth century. Its origin is associated with the name of the outstanding English economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). His main approaches to the study of macroeconomic processes are set out in his work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” (1936). In this work, Keynes examined the main macroeconomic categories: the volume of national production, the level of prices and employment, consumption, savings, investment, etc. However, macroeconomic analysis itself appeared much earlier. The first attempt to describe macroeconomic patterns was made by a representative of the French school of physiocrats, Francois Quesnay (1694-1774). For the first time in economic theory, he introduced the concept of “reproduction” as a constant repetition of the process of production and sales. A description of the reproduction process is contained in the “Economic Table” (1758) and in the comments to it (1766). Quesnay's "Economic Table" is the first macroeconomic model that identifies the main large-scale proportions in the economy. A significant role in the development of macroeconomic analysis was played by the schemes of simple and expanded reproduction of capital.
Marx (1818-1883), general equilibrium theory of Leon Walras (1834-1910). In the 30s of the twentieth century, many scientists, independently of Keynes, made attempts to carry out macroeconomic analysis. In particular, at the origins of the concept of “macroeconomic” is the famous Norwegian scientist, laureate Nobel Prize in economics Ragnar Frisch (1895-1973). It was he who outlined the research program for this discipline. In the article “Problems of Contagion and Problems of Momentum in Economic Dynamics” (1933), Frisch distinguishes between micro- and macroeconomic analysis. He also proposes and himself uses the method of macroeconomic analysis of fluctuations, which allows one to build a theoretical model and study the correspondence of its results to real facts.
Mention should also be made of the Dutch Nobel Prize-winning economist Jan Tinbergen (1903-1994), who built his country's first macroeconomic model before doing more extensive research for the League of Nations in 1939. Many aspects of macroeconomics were developed by such scientists as J. K. Galbraith, E. Domar, S. Kuznets, V. Leontiev, G. Myrdal, P. Samuelson, I. Fisher, M. Friedman, E. Hansen, R. Harrod et al. Internationally recognized results in macroeconomic research were also obtained by domestic scientists, among whom, first of all, D. Kondratiev and V.S. Nemchinov. The focus of macroeconomics is on the following main problems: ensuring economic growth; general economic equilibrium and the conditions for its achievement; macroeconomic instability, measurement and modes of regulation; determining the results of economic activity; the state of the state budget and balance of payments of the country; cyclical nature of economic development; optimization of foreign economic relations; social protection of the population and others.
To understand the subject of macroeconomics, it is necessary to distinguish between expost macroeconomic analysis, or national accounting, and ex ante analysis - macroeconomics in the proper sense of the word. National accounting (ex post) determines the macroeconomic position of the economy in the past period. This information is necessary to determine the degree of implementation of previously set goals, develop economic policy, and comparative analysis of the economic potential of different countries. Based on ex post data, existing macroeconomic concepts are adjusted and new ones are developed. Analysis (ex ante) is a predictive modeling of economic phenomena and processes based on certain theoretical concepts. The purpose of such an analysis is to determine the patterns of formation of macroeconomic parameters. Macroeconomics provides certain recommendations for developing state economic policy based on an analysis of real economic parameters.
Up
In the first and second chapters, I examined fiscal, monetary, and foreign trade policies under conditions of a floating exchange rate with high and low capital mobility. And also compared them with each other. From the theory, it becomes clear that stimulating fiscal policy with a floating exchange rate is completely replaced by a reduction in net exports: the trade balance worsens exactly by the amount of the increase in government spending. An increase in the money supply affects the economy not through the interest rate, but through the exchange rate, which stimulates external demand, increases net exports, employment and national income.
A floating exchange rate regime with low capital mobility makes foreign trade policy ineffective from a macroeconomic point of view, since the increase in net exports due to protectionist government measures is fully compensated by its subsequent reduction as a result of the appreciation national currency. The difference from the situation with low capital mobility is only that the degree of appreciation of the national currency in this case is greater, and, therefore, the economy returns to its original state faster.
The main thing that follows from the analysis is that in the conditions open economy Macroeconomic policy outcomes are highly dependent on the exchange rate regime and the degree of international capital mobility.
Fiscal policy affects total income under both fixed and floating exchange rates. However, its effectiveness strongly depends on the degree of capital mobility. With a fixed exchange rate, the effectiveness of fiscal policy increases as the degree of capital mobility increases, and with a floating exchange rate, on the contrary, it decreases. This is because expansionary fiscal policy leads to an increase in interest rates and, consequently, to capital inflows. The scale of this influx will be greater, the higher the degree of capital mobility. But if, under a fixed exchange rate regime, a surplus in the balance of payments leads through the mechanism of foreign exchange interventions to an increase in the money supply, which enhances the effect of fiscal policy, then under a floating exchange rate, the result of a surplus in the balance of payments is an increase in the price of the national currency and a reduction in aggregate demand.
In the practical part of this work, I examined the problems of the currency regulation system of the Republic of Belarus, which is a set of subjects and objects of regulation, as well as a set of tools used by the former in relation to the latter to achieve the goal of ensuring a stable exchange rate of the national currency.
One of the subjects of currency regulation is the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. The main goal of which is to ensure the internal and external stability of the national currency. To achieve this goal
According to the Main Directions of the Monetary Policy of the Republic of Belarus for 2009, a more flexible approach to exchange rate policy was determined, ensuring the overall stability of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate to a basket of foreign currencies: US dollar - euro - Russian ruble. These foreign currencies, which determine the economy of Belarus, were included in the basket in equal shares.
The advantages of pegging the Belarusian ruble to a basket of foreign currencies are as follows:
- ? firstly, the continuity of the exchange rate policy is maintained, which is reflected in minor fluctuations in the dollar at the initial stage;
- ? secondly, it provides more effective management real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble without a significant loss of competitiveness in foreign markets;
- ? thirdly, in the context of the global financial crisis, pegging to a basket of currencies makes it possible to reduce the risks of exchange rate fluctuations. The disadvantage is the increased volatility of the dollar exchange rate, which increases uncertainty regarding its future value for market participants, but at the same time the possibilities for short-term currency speculation are reduced. The use by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus of a mechanism for pegging the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to a basket of foreign currencies is the first step towards gradually increasing the degree of exchange rate flexibility in the context of the transition to inflation targeting.
In the current conditions of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus, the prerequisites for introducing a floating exchange rate have not been achieved for the following reasons:
Firstly, in conditions of a high degree of openness and dollarization of the Belarusian economy, refusal to fix the exchange rate can lead to a sharp intensification of inflation and devaluation processes, and therefore to a weakening of the banking system of the Republic of Belarus (Table 3.2.3).
Secondly, the insufficient development of the market for forward foreign exchange transactions in the domestic economy makes forward coverage unavailable for most subjects of foreign economic activity and increases the costs of uncertainty, as a consequence of exchange rate fluctuations.
Thirdly, the most convincing argument in favor of a floating exchange rate is the high degree of capital mobility and a developed stock market, which is also absent in the Republic of Belarus.
Monetary policy in the 1st quarter of 2010 was carried out taking into account the emerging macroeconomic situation and was aimed at maintaining financial stability. The main measures of monetary policy were developed and implemented by the National Bank jointly with the Government of the Republic of Belarus. The main result of the work of the past three months (table):
- ? maintaining the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the value of a basket of foreign currencies within the established corridor of acceptable values;
- ? a reduction in the level of interest rates in the money market has been achieved;
- ? credit support for the economy by banks has been expanded;
- ? continued growth of assets and regulatory capital of the banking sector;
- ? reliable and secure functioning of the payment system is ensured.
At the end of the first quarter, as a result of operations in all segments of the foreign exchange market, there was a net demand for foreign currency in the amount of $1,195 million, which is $132 million, or 12.4%, more than in the same period in 2009 d. At the same time, the structure of net demand for foreign currency for the period under review differs significantly from that which developed in January - March 2009. If at the beginning of last year negative expectations from the population led to increased demand for foreign currency, then in 2010 the main factor of imbalance was accelerated growth demand from business entities. Banks - residents of the Republic of Belarus for January - March 2010 formed a net supply of foreign currency in the amount of 136 million US dollars. This is $510 million, or 4.7 times, less than for the same period in 2009. The foreign currency deficit in the domestic foreign exchange market during the analyzed period was compensated mainly by interventions of the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus.
Introduction
1. Macroeconomics in the economic system of society
1.1 Macroeconomics: concept, goals, functions. Evolution of the concept of “Macroeconomics”. Methodological and methodological features of macroeconomic analysis. Macroeconomic models
1.2 Social orientation of the economic system and macroeconomics
1.3 Features of state regulation of macroeconomics in the Republic of Belarus
2. Analysis and forecast of changes in the economy using the Keynes model
Conclusion
List of sources used
Introduction
The study of macroeconomics gains everything higher value in new economic conditions. Macroeconomics is mainly the study of market economics. Today in our country the mechanisms of the command economy have been eliminated, and market relations have begun to develop. The national economic system has changed, the foundations of a market economy have been created. Of course, the specific problems of the period of transformation, that is, the transition economy, have not yet been resolved. However, the transition to a market, the creation of a market infrastructure in the Republic of Belarus has advanced so much that macroeconomic patterns of market reality are beginning to operate.
The relevance of the topic of the work is determined primarily by the Lately interest in studying macroeconomics. This is due to the following reasons. Firstly, macroeconomics not only describes macroeconomic phenomena and processes, but reveals patterns and dependencies between them, explores cause-and-effect relationships in economics. Secondly, knowledge of macroeconomic dependencies and connections allows us to assess the existing situation in the economy and show what needs to be done to improve it, and, first of all, what politicians should do, i.e. allows develop principles of economic policy. Thirdly, knowledge of macroeconomics makes it possible to foresee how processes will develop in the future, i.e. make forecasts, anticipate future economic problems.
Macroeconomics has several interesting features: it is not an established, complete discipline, and debates on key issues in macroeconomics continue today. When studying macroeconomics, you need to take into account the fact that on some issues there are several theories that try to explain this or that phenomenon from different points of view. You should also pay attention to the premises on which a particular theory is based, and evaluate the adequacy of these premises in each specific situation to which you are going to apply a particular theory. For example, it is difficult to expect that models created to describe a developed market economy will adequately describe the situation in countries with transition economies.
The main goal of this work is to consider the problems that macroeconomics studies and the methods with which it operates. In connection with this goal, the main objectives of the work are to find the origins of macroeconomics, define the concept of “macroeconomics”, clarify the differences between micro- and macroeconomics, consider the subject and methods of macroeconomics, and also reveal the content of its basic concepts.
1. Macroeconomics in the economic system of society
1.1 Macroeconomics: concept, goals, functions. Evolution of the concept of “Macroeconomics”. Methodological and methodological features of macroeconomic analysis. Macroeconomic models
Modern economic science was created over a long period of time. This development process resulted in the creation of at least two distinct concepts. First, a theory was formulated to explain the behavior of a market subject within a local market - microeconomics. The merit of microeconomics is that it reduced the behavior of individual producers and consumers to the rational market logic of the actions of the buyer and seller - the desire to achieve maximum benefit. By this, economic science brought research closer to reality, since it moved from an abstract person to an egoistic person who strives to extract his own benefit under any conditions. However, excessive individualization has led to a deep crisis in science. The fact is that the microeconomic approach did not allow analyzing general economic parameters. The problem was solved by John M. Keynes in the 30s. XX century It was this economist who laid the foundations of macroeconomic theory.
Macroeconomics appeared as a set of aggregated economic indicators collected into a specific system. In this regard, the discovery of relationships between economic parameters is the subject of macroeconomics.
The problems facing those starting to study this course relate primarily to clarifying the specifics of macroeconomics. In this regard, it is necessary to characterize the subject of this section and its methodology. Next, you should define the concept of the national economy and outline its main goals, present it as a complex system. This approach will allow us to determine the structure of the national economy and macroeconomic proportions.
Unlike microeconomics, which studies mainly the behavior of an individual economic entity, microeconomics studies the system as a whole, as well as its most important constituent elements. This course analyzes a whole range of processes in the economy: total production, general price level, unemployment, inflation, goals and problems of economic policy, foreign trade, functioning of the public sector, etc.
The most important feature of macroeconomics is the use of aggregate parameters. The very concept of “aggregation” is a combination, summation of homogeneous economic indicators on a certain basis in order to obtain more general values. This approach allows us to consider only four economic entities within the course: the household, the business sector, the public sector and abroad. It is obvious that each of the named economic agents is a collection of real subjects.
Household sector includes all private national cells whose activities are related to meeting their own needs. A distinctive feature of this economic agent is that he acts as a private owner of all factors of production. As a result of investing resources in certain activities, households receive income, which, in the process of its distribution, is divided into consumed and saved parts. Thus, three types of economic activity in this sector of the economy are realized: firstly, the supply of production factors to the relevant markets; secondly, consumption; thirdly, saving part of the income received.
Business sector represents the totality of all companies registered in the territory of the state. Characteristic of this sector is the production activity that results in a finished product. To achieve this, the following types of economic activity are manifested: firstly, demand is presented in the factor of production market for the necessary resources; secondly, manufactured products are offered on the appropriate market, thirdly, investment of funds is organized to carry out the reproduction process.
Government sector includes all government institutions and agencies. This economic entity is a producer of public goods, which include: national defense, education, basic science, etc. To carry out the process of producing this kind of goods, the state is forced to purchase goods produced by the business sector as means of production. These costs, together with employee compensation, constitute government spending. Their source is taxes levied on households and businesses. Government spending will also include payments to households (pensions and benefits) and the business sector (subsidies). A necessary condition for the functioning of the public sector is the equality of expenses with income. If the former exceed the latter, then you will have to resort to borrowing to cover the existing deficit. Thus, the economic activity of the state is manifested: through government procurement in the product market; through net taxes (this is the difference between tax revenues and transfer payments); through government loans.
Abroad includes all economic entities located abroad together with foreign government institutions. Accounting for this sector allows you to analyze two types of economic activity: the mechanism of export, import of goods and services, financial transactions.
The aggregation process extends to markets. As is known, a market economy is a system consisting of four main elements: markets for goods, factors of production, money and securities. In the goods market, the purchase and sale of goods and services takes place. The producer here is the business sector, and the consumers are households, the state and firms. The money market characterizes the supply and demand of the national currency, the seller here is the state, and the consumer is other economic agents. The labor market is a form of labor movement. The supply is carried out by households, and all other entities show demand for this resource. Two groups interact in the securities market: on the one hand, the state and firms, on the other hand, the state, firms and households. The entire specified set of markets is aggregated into the concept of “macromarket”, the microeconomic concept of the price of a good disappears, and the subject of study becomes the absolute price level and its changes.
Analysis methods. A distinctive feature of macroeconomic analysis is modeling, which allows one to study economic phenomena and processes by constructing their conditional images. The specificity of macroeconomics as a whole excludes the possibility of experimental modeling. For this reason, theoretical modeling is mainly used. The phenomenon to be considered can be analyzed through verbal and graphical analysis. However, three modeling methods are most important for macroeconomics: mathematical, balance sheet and statistical.
Mathematical modeling is based on the fact that the main parameters of the economy are comparable and establish qualitative and quantitative dependencies of the variables that describe the economic process. When constructing a model, the method of scientific abstraction is used - the most significant relationships between variables are reproduced, and the researcher abstracts from minor ones.
Macroeconomic models are based on the balance sheet method, because it is assumed that in all markets there is equality of income and expenses, production and sales volume, aggregate demand and aggregate supply. And although in reality such a balance is practically unattainable, it is the desire for it that makes it possible to solve macroeconomic problems: employment, economic growth, inflation, etc.
The models used in macroeconomics can be static or dynamic. Static ones analyze the economic system during a certain period of time. Dynamic models based on initial data provide a forecast for the development of the economic system. A feature of static modeling is the use of the system of national accounts, which makes it possible to determine the values of macroeconomic parameters for a certain period in order to obtain information about the results of the functioning of the economy. Dynamic models are predictive modeling of economic phenomena and processes based on certain theoretical developments.
1.2 Social orientation of the economic system and macroeconomics
Economic activity has the ultimate goal of creating a material base for improving living and working conditions. Therefore, social policy expresses the final goals and results of economic growth. The connection between social policy and economic growth is interdependent. On the one hand, social policy becomes the goal of economic growth. It makes sense to consider all aspects of economic development through the prism of their social orientation. On the other hand, social policy is a factor in economic growth, since rising well-being increases motivation to work and helps improve production efficiency. In addition, economic growth places increasingly high demands on the qualifications and culture of the employee, physical and spiritual development of the individual. And this requires further development of the social sphere.
Social policy is the coordinated activity of economic entities aimed at ensuring favorable living and working conditions for members of society.
The main entity coordinating this activity is the state.
Social policy permeates all levels of social and economic activity. Thus, it is quite possible to talk about social policy at the micro level, i.e. about the social policy of a company or corporation. The activities of various (including charitable) organizations are also highlighted here. At the macro level, regional and national social policy is implemented.
The interconnection and material security of social policy as a whole do not develop on their own, i.e. automatically, but require the creation of certain macroeconomic prerequisites. The formation of these prerequisites is one of the tasks of state regulation of the economy.
Social policy is designed to promote the development of relations of justice in society, to form a system of social protection, as well as conditions for the growth of well-being and the implementation of appropriate income policies. In accordance with these functions of social policy, the following tasks are solved:
Preparation and implementation of employment programs;
Assistance to the most socially vulnerable segments of the population;
Ensuring accessibility of cultural values;
Development of education, medicine, social insurance.
The effectiveness of social policy can be assessed by comparing the level and quality of life of the population of different countries. In relation to a specific country, it makes sense to analyze changes in the social situation over a certain period of time. It is important to prevent the formation of a “social bottom”, the emergence of imbalances, and the preservation and strengthening of social peace.
Standard of living- this is the degree of provision of the population with material and spiritual benefits, based on existing needs. At the same time, needs are active in nature and serve as an incentive for human activity. It is quite normal if their growth causes an increase in living standards.
To assess the standard of living, as a rule, a set of indicators is used: the amount of real income, consumption of basic food products per capita, the provision of industrial goods to the population (usually per 100 families); consumption structure; length of working time, amount of free time and its structure, development of the social sphere, etc.
Among the indicators of living standards, general indicators can be distinguished. First of all, the volume of goods and services consumed; distribution of the population by income level. Of particular importance are indicators characterizing certain aspects of people’s lives (calorie content and biological value of the diet, etc.).
Among the listed indicators, the most important is the level of real income of the population. In turn, the dynamics of real income is determined by the following indicators: the level of wages in all spheres of the national economy, the amount of income from private enterprise and personal subsidiary plots, the amount of payments from public (social) consumption funds, state tax policy and the level of inflation.
Consumer basket and minimum budget. To get a real picture of living standards, it is necessary to have a certain standard against which actual data can be compared. This standard is a “consumer basket”, which includes a scientifically based, balanced set of goods and services that satisfy specific functional needs of a person at certain periods of time, based on the specific conditions prevailing in the republic and the real capabilities of the economy.
The “consumer basket” is formed according to the main expense items:
Nutrition;
Blankets, linen, shoes;
Sanitation, hygiene, medicine items;
Furniture, cultural, household and household items;
Housing and utilities;
cultural and educational events and recreation;
Household services, transport, communications;
Taxes, mandatory payments, savings;
Other expenses.
A distinction is made between a minimum consumer basket, which provides a “minimum normal level of consumption, and a rational consumer basket, which reflects the most favorable, scientifically based consumption structure.”
The “minimum consumer basket” is calculated for a standard family consisting of two adults and two school-age children, and means such a minimum acceptable consumption set, the reduction of which is socially unacceptable. The minimum consumer basket” for individual socio-demographic groups is calculated for a family of 4 people with two children, a single person of working age, a pensioner, a young family with 1 child, a student and is the basis for determining the per capita minimum consumer budget and the subsistence level.
The per capita average monthly minimum consumer budget is determined in the republic as 1/4 of the minimum consumer budget for a family of four.
The subsistence minimum is the amount of monetary income that ensures the satisfaction of the minimum acceptable needs. The subsistence minimum is the basic standard for classifying citizens as low-income groups of the population below the “poverty line”. This line is defined as 60% of the per capita monthly minimum consumer budget (MCB) of a family of four for the previous quarter.
The minimum level of consumption should be distinguished from the physiological minimum of consumption, which is necessary for the physical existence of a person.
The quality of life. In contrast to the standard of living, its quality is much more difficult to assess, firstly, since “quality of life” acts as a kind of integrative assessment. Based on their perception of quality of life, for example, someone might turn down a million dollars in favor of going to the moon instead. Secondly, qualitative parameters are quite difficult to quantify.
The main indicators of quality of life include: working conditions and safety; availability and use of free time; state of ecology; health and physical development of the population, etc.
It should be noted that the requirements for the level and quality of life are increasing over time. They may vary markedly in individual countries and regions.
The factors that determine both quantitative and qualitative indicators of the effectiveness of social policy are: the state of the national economy, the political situation, natural and climatic conditions, geographical location, established traditions and culture.
The creation of a social protection system is one of the main functions of social policy.
Social protection is understood as certain obligations of society towards its citizens within the framework of the existing constitution.
The social protection system is a set of measures aimed at fulfilling these obligations. The effectiveness and scale of the social security system largely depends on the economic potential of a particular country and the entire set of macroeconomic conditions for the implementation of social policy.
The social protection mechanism includes measures affecting all members of society, as well as measures addressed only to certain social groups.
The first usually include: ensuring effective employment, which would allow each person to find application for his personal abilities in the relevant field of activity; official establishment of the real level of subsistence level both in monetary form and in the “consumer basket, taking into account the differentiation of income and consumption of the population; protection of consumer interests; compensation, adaptation and indexation of income; development of social partnership relations.
Measures of social protection of certain groups of the population include: provision of social assistance to the poor or low-income segments of the population, targeted or targeted payments from public consumption funds. Measures for social protection populations can have an active and passive form.
An example of an active form is training and retraining of personnel, creation of new jobs.
Passive forms come down mainly to the payment of appropriate benefits and subsidies.
Let us dwell in more detail on such measures of the social protection mechanism as establishing a real level of subsistence level, social assistance to the poor and payments from public consumption funds.
As already noted, the minimum consumer budget and subsistence level are calculated on the basis of the minimum “consumer basket”. The formation of the minimum consumer budget is carried out by normative, statistical or combined methods.
Normative method is based on the development of norms and standards for the consumption of goods and services necessary to satisfy the basic physiological and socio-cultural needs of a person, taking into account the characteristics of gender and age groups of the population. Based on the developed consumption standards, the natural and material composition of the minimum consumer budget is formed.
Statistical method constructing a minimum consumer budget involves analyzing the actual patterns of consumption based on data from budget surveys of families. In accordance with different levels of per capita income, several types of consumption are distinguished, one of which is accepted as the minimum.
Combined method includes elements of the two considered approaches. First of all, the normative part is established - the amount of food costs. Then, based on statistical data on consumption in various income groups, the relationship between food expenditures, consumption of other goods, services and income is determined. Based on the identified statistical pattern, the total amount of expenses for the minimum “consumer basket” is calculated. The general scheme for the formation of the minimum consumer budget and subsistence level is given in Fig. 7.1.
The minimum consumer basket, taking into account the level of inflation, determines the minimum consumer budget (MCB) for a family of four people. The average per capita BSP is 25% of the MBP of a family of four. Based on these data, the average monthly per capita minimum wage for the quarter is calculated, 60% of the value of which determines the subsistence level (threshold, poverty line).
It should be noted that in conditions of constant rising prices, the cost of living must be adjusted monthly. In addition, the monetary value of the subsistence level acquires an abstract character when it is determined based on a set of cheap and accessible goods, and the consumer has to face a shortage or buy expensive goods. Statistics show that if in the republic in 1990 food costs in the family budget amounted to 28%, today their level is approximately 58%. Under these conditions, the legislative establishment of a living wage is not a reliable means of social protection.
Pension- this is a cash benefit received by a citizen after he reaches the age established by law and provided that he has worked a certain number of years as an employee. Pension provision is regulated by the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On Pension Provision”, adopted at the session of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Belarus on April 17, 1992, the Laws of February 2, 1994, February 24, 1994, March 1, 1995 “On Amendments and Additions” to the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On Pension Security”, as well as other legislative acts.
Labor pensions include pensions for old age, disability, as well as in the event of loss of a breadwinner, for length of service, and for special services to the republic. Men have the right to an old-age labor pension upon reaching 60 years of age and with at least 25 years of work experience, and women upon reaching 55 years of age and with at least 20 years of work experience. Some categories of citizens are granted pensions on preferential terms. These include people who worked in the Far North, who had special working conditions (difficult, unhealthy, dangerous), as well as mothers of many children, parents of people with disabilities since childhood.
Disability pensions are awarded in the event of disability as a result of a work injury, occupational disease or due to a general illness.
Pensions in the event of the loss of a breadwinner are received by disabled family members of the deceased breadwinner who were dependent on him.
Long service pensions are established for those categories of citizens who are employed in jobs leading to loss of ability to work or fitness before reaching the age entitling them to an old-age pension. Aviation workers, locomotive crews, truck drivers, miners, geologists, sailors, etc. have the right to a pension for length of service.
Social pensions are assigned to non-working citizens in the absence of the right to a labor pension. They are paid to disabled people, men and women who have reached retirement age, and children in case of loss of a breadwinner.
Pensions are paid from the social protection fund of the Republic of Belarus, which is formed from contributions from employers, mandatory insurance contributions from citizens, and state budget funds.
State scholarships are paid to students. The amount of the scholarship is periodically adjusted to take into account inflation, depending on the type educational institution and on the student's academic performance. Certain categories of students receive personal scholarships. State benefits are assigned:
families raising children;
war invalids;
In addition, public consumption funds support educational, healthcare, cultural institutions, housing, utilities and much more.
It should be remembered that payments from public consumption funds have virtually no connection with labor contribution, and therefore do not have a stimulating effect. At the same time, their increase is one of the main factors of inflation. The emergence of a stimulating function in the future is possible with the transition to social partnership, when, along with the state, enterprises and public organizations, their potential recipients will participate in the formation of social funds. Today, with the existing inefficient employment system, the low share of wages in the national income and the high proportion of low-income families, such participation is very difficult, since the majority of the population does not have sufficient income to make systematic contributions to the medical insurance funds, the insurance pension fund, and the insurance fund. from unemployment and for other purposes. Therefore, such passive forms of social policy, such as payments from public consumption funds, must be combined with the creation of conditions for broad sections of the population to efficient work and receiving corresponding income.
1.3 Features of state regulation of macroeconomics in the Republic of Belarus
The state is the main institution of the economic and political system of society; it directs and controls the joint activities of people and their relationships with each other. In relation to other entities, the state has a certain status, which allows it to occupy a special place among economic agents. In this case, the following distinctive features are meant: firstly, it is sovereignty, that is, the supremacy of state power within the country and independence outside. More precisely, the state has supreme and unlimited power on its territory, therefore it acts as the only subject of a market economy, the requirements of which are mandatory for all other agents. Secondly, it is a monopoly right to issue laws and legal acts that are binding on the entire population. In this case, we are talking about the development of norms that ensure the stable functioning of market structures. Thirdly, this is a monopoly right to collect taxes and fees from the population and the business sector. This feature allows us to draw a conclusion about the non-market origin of state income. As is known, income will be market income if it is created and increased through the subject’s participation in production, housekeeping, income from funds invested in banks and other financial institutions, shares, other securities, etc. If we exclude the limited sphere of state entrepreneurship, then state income arises as a result of non-economic actions - as a redistribution of part of the income of households and firms in favor of the state. And finally, fourthly, the state is a regulatory entity. The role of the state in a market economy is the main problem of economic theory, which is generated by constant changes in the economy, requiring corresponding modifications in the scope and instruments of government regulation. The challenge here is to find the optimal measure and the most effective forms of intervention in the economic system.
The place and role of the state are largely determined by its functions. The latter reflect the main areas of activity. The following functions can be distinguished: legal, reproductive and technological, competition protection, stabilization, prognostic, regulatory.
The legal function is a unique institution of public life, designed to regulate the most important relations between business entities that require state protection. We are talking about formalizing the status of an economic agent, establishing business norms and rules, forming an organizational management structure, regulating property relations, specifying the rules for creating and liquidating enterprises, etc.
The reproductive-technological function determines the normal course of the reproductive process. It comes down to creating conditions to ensure production with the necessary resources, satisfying people with material and spiritual benefits, as well as conditions for education, training and life. Two subfunctions deserve consideration here as independent ones: redistribution of income and resources. The particular significance of these issues is due to the fact that the market mechanism itself is not able to resolve them and, in view of this, there is a need for their state regulation.
Competition protection function. In the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On counteracting monopolistic activities and developing competition”, it is defined as competition between economic entities when their independent actions limit the ability of each to influence General terms sales of goods on the market and stimulate the production of goods necessary for the consumer. The complete opposite is a monopoly, which refers to a situation where the number of sellers becomes infinitesimal and this allows them to influence the volume of production, and therefore the price. In accordance with the demand curve for its products, a monopolist can manipulate production volume and price, which most often leads to a decrease in the first and an increase in the second. As a result, resources are distributed in such a way that it serves the interests of monopolistic producers rather than the goals of society, which causes irrational distribution of resources. To prevent the consequences of monopolization, the state intervenes in the economy. To achieve this, the following steps are taken. First of all, it is necessary to carefully study markets, calculate concentration coefficients for them, and on this basis identify competitive and monopolized industries. It should be noted that the state must adhere to a differentiated approach in relation to monopolies. The fact is that in this case the goal is to preserve a zone of natural monopoly in the economy, while a strict antimonopoly policy should be pursued in relation to other companies.
The stabilization function is the government's activities aimed at ensuring economic growth, full employment and price stability. The main problem here is that in order to increase production volume, an increase in total expenditures is necessary, which a market economy is not able to provide. As a result, two unfavorable situations are possible: unemployment and inflation. To achieve full employment, the government must increase aggregate spending. This is possible by increasing its own total expenditures and those of the private sector. To stimulate them, it is necessary to reduce tax rates. In the case of an inflationary economy, the government has a diametrically opposite goal - reducing costs. This is achieved by reducing government purchases and increasing taxes on the private sector.
Prognostic function. It determines priority guidelines for economic development, which are developed on the basis of forecasting economic development; identifying trends and directions of movement, forming a market management mechanism, ensuring employment and regulating unemployment. In the implementation of this function, the state plays a coordinating role, which involves establishing a flexible system of interaction between the Center and the economic and administrative structures of society.
The regulatory function represents the most extensive and versatile activity of the state. At the same time, the government pursues the following goals: minimizing the negative consequences of the functioning of a market economy; creation of legal, financial, social foundations for the functioning of the market; ensuring social protection of the population. To achieve these goals, the government uses direct and indirect methods, promotes the formation of infrastructure, maintains a balanced economy, for which it uses monetary, price, and tax instruments.
The relevance of the problems of employment and unemployment is explained by the fact that, firstly, ensuring full employment is one of the most important goals of the national economy, and secondly, unemployment is a form of manifestation of instability of economic development. Unemployment has negative economic and social consequences. Studying the problems of employment and unemployment helps to identify the causes of unemployment and develop effective employment policies.
Employment expresses the process of including workers in economic relations in accordance with the existing demand for labor. The legislation of the Republic of Belarus defines employment as an activity of citizens not prohibited by law, which, as a rule, generates income. The level and specific structure of employment are the main results in the labor market.
The statistical method for constructing a minimum consumer budget involves analyzing the actual patterns of consumption based on data from budget surveys of families. In accordance with different levels of per capita income, several types of consumption are distinguished, one of which is accepted as the minimum.
The combined method includes elements of the two considered approaches. First of all, the normative part is established - the amount of food costs. Then, based on statistical data on consumption in various income groups, the relationship between food expenditures, consumption of other goods, services and income is determined. Based on the identified statistical pattern, the total amount of expenses for the minimum “consumer basket” is calculated. The general scheme for the formation of the minimum consumer budget and subsistence level is given in Fig. 7.1.
The minimum consumer basket, taking into account the level of inflation, determines the minimum consumer budget (MCB) for a family of four people. The average per capita BSP is 25% of the MBP of a family of four. Based on these data, the average monthly per capita minimum wage for the quarter is calculated, 60% of the value of which determines the subsistence level (threshold, poverty line).
It should be noted that in conditions of constant rising prices, the cost of living must be adjusted monthly. In addition, the monetary value of the subsistence level acquires an abstract character when it is determined based on a set of cheap and accessible goods, and the consumer has to face a shortage or buy expensive goods. Statistics show that if in the republic in 1990 food costs in the family budget amounted to 28%, today their level is approximately 58%. Under these conditions, the legislative establishment of a living wage is not a reliable means of social protection.
The size of the minimum consumer budget should serve as a guideline for strengthening social protection of the population, determining minimum sizes wages, pensions, scholarships, benefits, including unemployment. It must be remembered that the minimum consumer budget applies to all members of society, including non-workers, and the minimum wage is a form of remuneration for work. Therefore, the minimum wage must be higher than the minimum consumer budget. Setting a minimum wage at the subsistence level discredits labor as a source of income. Economic incentives to work are lost, which can lead to the lumpenization of a certain part of society.
Social protection of low-income segments of the population is manifested in the form of cash payments, the provision of goods and services in kind and material form, as well as various benefits, allowances, home care for the sick and elderly, partial (full) payment of utilities, apartment bills, public travel transport, etc.
Payments from social public consumption funds in the Republic of Belarus are mainly pensions, scholarships and various benefits.
A pension is a cash benefit received by a citizen after he reaches the age established by law and provided that he has worked a certain number of years as an employee. Pension provision is regulated by the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On Pension Provision”, adopted at the session of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Belarus on April 17, 1992, the Laws of February 2, 1994, February 24, 1994, March 1, 1995 “On Amendments and Additions” to the Law of the Republic of Belarus On Pension Provision", as well as other legislative acts.
A pension solves not only the problem of humanity, but is also an incentive for better work. The state assigns labor and social pensions.
State scholarships are paid to students. The amount of the scholarship is periodically adjusted to take into account inflation and depends on the type of educational institution and the degree of academic achievement of the student. Certain categories of students receive personal scholarships. State benefits are assigned:
families raising children;
to the population affected by the Chernobyl accident;
war invalids;
women during pregnancy, childbirth and other categories of citizens.
The state employment policy in the Republic of Belarus is influenced by the peculiarities of the formation of its labor market. These features include: the absence of a long evolutionary path of development of the labor market, the coincidence of the period of formation of the labor market with the formation of other markets, the presence of many stereotypes and moral criteria that developed in the era of the administrative command economy.
These and other circumstances have led to the need to update the entire complex of labor legislation. Currently, employment relations in the republic are regulated by the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, the Law on Employment of the Republic of Belarus, as well as the Labor Code and other regulations.
Analysis of the labor market in the republic allows us to identify some trends in its development. In the field of labor supply, this is a deterioration in the demographic situation, overemployment of a number of demographic groups, an expansion of labor supply due to workers released from production, unemployed graduates of universities, colleges, schools, and refugees. The main trends in labor demand are:
reduction in labor demand from state-owned enterprises;
growing demand for labor resources from the non-state sector;
changes in the sectoral structure of labor demand.
The main goal of state regulation of employment is to achieve a balance of supply and demand in the labor market and the processes of reproduction of the labor force.
There are several types of government regulation in the labor market: protective - in order to reduce the vulnerability of certain groups of workers; incentives for certain types of activities; restrictive - exclusion of unjustified advantages; directive - direct measures to influence the labor market; regulation through economic (financial) measures.
A special group consists of measures for social protection in the labor market. At the same time, both individual and all types of regulation can be implemented in the same labor market.
The above types of regulation are carried out in accordance with employment programs, the preparation of which should be preceded by forecasting the state of the labor market.
The purpose of drawing up such a forecast is to determine the magnitude of demand and supply for labor in the coming period, based on an analysis of the state of the labor market and employment in the reporting period, statistical and other information and prevailing conditions.
When determining labor supply, only the working-age population is taken into account. The magnitude of demand is determined by the availability of vacancies and vacancies resulting from the retirement of workers, the creation of new jobs and the availability of vacancies at the beginning of the year.
In Belarus, the legislative foundations have been laid for the establishment of an effective form of regulation of social and labor relations. The laws of the Republic of Belarus have been adopted: “On trade unions”, “On collective contracts and agreements”, “On the procedure for resolving collective labor disputes (conflicts)”. The relevant ILO conventions have been ratified. At the republican level, a General Agreement is concluded annually between the government, republican trade union associations and employers.
The government securities market is an integral part of any developed economic system. Their release and circulation give the state a powerful instrument for regulating macroeconomics.
Participants in the government securities market in the Republic of Belarus (RB) are:
– Ministry of Finance is the issuer acting on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Belarus. This body issues securities and bears, on its own behalf, obligations under them to the owners of the securities;
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NB RB) is an economic adviser and financial agent of the Government for the placement, servicing and redemption of issues of government securities;
– investors, professional participants in the securities market, legal and individuals, including foreign ones who own bonds and have excess financial resources, which they invest in Government securities.
One of the most effective instruments of monetary regulation is the National Bank's open market operations. By the decision of the Board of the National Bank, the “Regulations on operations of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus with securities on the open market” were approved, where the stabilization of monetary relations and the operational regulation of the volume of money supply were recognized as the goals of their implementation.
Article 53 of the Banking Code of the Republic of Belarus defines the following operations of the National Bank with securities:
The National Bank, when carrying out the functions of monetary regulation, issues (issues) securities, and also carries out transactions with securities;
The National Bank performs the functions of an agent of the Government of the Republic of Belarus (RB) in the government securities market, organizes their initial placement and circulation;
The National Bank performs the functions of the central depository of government securities and securities of the National Bank.
The sale of securities of the Cabinet of Ministers can be carried out by authorized banks. Transactions with government securities on the open market are carried out by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. In the process of these operations, the central bank directly influences almost all the most important parameters of the loan capital market. Operations are used to increase or decrease the reserves of commercial banks, change the level of bank liquidity and the size of credit issues, and regulate the market rate of government securities (GS).
2. Analysis and forecast of changes in the economy using the Keynes model
The analysis is carried out for at least 15 values of national income in increments of 150 billion rubles. (Y0 = 0). If the equilibrium value (Y=E) is not achieved, then the number of calculation steps should be increased.
Data for calculation are entered into table 2.6 from table. source data in accordance with the version of the topic of the course work.
Table 2.6. Total expenditure and national income for the base period
| National income Y, billion rubles. |
Consumer spending C, billion rubles |
State expenses G, billion rubles |
Total total expenses E =C+I+G, billion ub. |
Deficit (surplus) Y-E, billion rubles |
|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 0 | -30,6 | 220 | 180 | 369,4 | -369,4 |
| 150 | 84,9 | 220 | 180 | 484,9 | -334,9 |
| 300 | 200,4 | 220 | 180 | 600,4 | -300,4 |
| 450 | 315,9 | 220 | 180 | 715,9 | -265,9 |
| 600 | 431,4 | 220 | 180 | 831,4 | -231,4 |
| 750 | 546,9 | 220 | 180 | 946,9 | -196,9 |
| 900 | 662,4 | 220 | 180 | 1062,4 | -162,4 |
| 1050 | 777,9 | 220 | 180 | 1177,9 | -127,9 |
| 1200 | 893,4 | 220 | 180 | 1293,4 | -93,4 |
| 1350 | 1008,9 | 220 | 180 | 1408,9 | -58,9 |
| 1500 | 1124,4 | 220 | 180 | 1524,4 | -24,4 |
| 1650 | 1239,9 | 220 | 180 | 1639,9 | 10,1 |
| 1800 | 1355,4 | 220 | 180 | 1755,4 | 44,6 |
| 1950 | 1470,9 | 220 | 180 | 1870,9 | 79,1 |
| 2100 | 1586,4 | 220 | 180 | 1986,4 | 113,6 |
X axis – national income Y;
Y axis – expenditures of the national economy (C, I, G, E).
The intersection of graphs E and Y gives the coordinate of the equilibrium Y, at which income and expenses in the economy are equal.
The equilibrium volume of national income is 1606 billion rubles, expenses will also be equal to 1606 billion rubles.
Next, an analysis of the indicators of the national economy is carried out with changes in investment expenditures, government expenditures, and tax revenues. To do this, perform the following steps in order of priority:
1) change in investment expenses. To do this, 5 periods are considered, in each of which the volume of investments is 15% greater than in the previous one. The calculation results are entered in the table. 2.7.
In this case, government expenditures and tax payments are taken at the level of the base period.
The impact of changes in investment expenditures on the level of equilibrium national income is reflected in Fig. 3.2 (Keynes' cross when investment expenditures change), on the basis of which the corresponding conclusions are drawn.
Table 3.2. Forecast of indicators of the national economy with changes in investment expenditures
| Period | Investment expenses I, billion rubles. | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 1 | 1519,13 | 220 | 180 | 1919 | 1919 |
| 2 | 1629,61 | 253 | 180 | 518 | 2063 |
| 3 | 1756,66 | 291 | 180 | 671 | 2228 |
| 4 | 1902,77 | 335 | 180 | 830 | 2417 |
| 5 | 2070,79 | 385 | 180 | 996 | 2636 |
Calculation of values in group 6 is carried out based on the following ratio:
or by the formula:
The values in group 2 are determined by the formula:
2) Similarly, the calculation and analysis of indicators of the national economy are carried out when government spending changes. Government spending for each period is increased by 20%, while investment spending and tax revenues are assumed to be at the level of the base period. There are also 5 settlement periods.
Table 2.8.
| Period | Consumer spending C, billion rubles | Investment expenses I, billion rubles. | Government expenditures G, billion rubles | Total total expenses E=C+I+G, billion rubles. | National income, billion rubles |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 1 | 1519,13 | 220 | 180 | 1919 | 1919 |
| 2 | 1546,85 | 220 | 216 | 1983 | 1955 |
| 3 | 1580,11 | 220 | 259 | 2059 | 1998 |
| 4 | 1620,03 | 220 | 311 | 2151 | 2050 |
| 5 | 1667,93 | 220 | 373 | 2261 | 2112 |
As can be seen from the table presented, with an increase in government spending by 20% each period, national income increases proportionally.
3) A table is built. 2.9. (Forecast of indicators of the national economy with changes in taxes) similar to table. 2.8.
It is assumed that in each period the level of taxes increases by 15%, while government spending and investment spending are taken at the level of the base period.
Table 2.9.. Forecast of indicators of the national economy with changes in government spending
| Period | Consumer spending C, billion rubles | Taxes | Investment expenses I, billion rubles. | Government expenditures G, billion rubles | Total total expenses E=C+I+G, billion rubles. | National income, billion rubles |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 1 | 1519,1 | 180 | 220 | 180 | 1919 | 1919 |
| 2 | 1428,7 | 207 | 220 | 180 | 1829 | 1829 |
| 3 | 1324,8 | 238 | 220 | 180 | 1725 | 1725 |
| 4 | 1205,2 | 274 | 220 | 180 | 1605 | 1605 |
| 5 | 1067,8 | 315 | 220 | 180 | 1468 | 1468 |
When taxes increase, national income decreases according to the table.
4) The case of a simultaneous increase in government spending and taxes by 40% in each period compared to the previous one is considered, while the volume of investment remains at the level of the base period.
For this purpose, a table is built. 2.10 (Forecast of indicators of the national economy with simultaneous changes in government spending and taxes), similar to Table. 2.8. Calculation periods – 5.
Table 2.10. Forecast of indicators of the national economy with changes in government spending
| Period | Consumer spending C, billion rubles | Taxes | Investment expenses I, billion rubles. | Government expenditures G, billion rubles | Total total expenses E=C+I+G, billion rubles. | National income, billion rubles |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 1 | 1519,1 | 180 | 220 | 180 | 1919 | 1919 |
| 2 | 1519,1 | 252 | 220 | 252 | 1991 | 1991 |
| 3 | 1519,1 | 353 | 220 | 353 | 2092 | 2092 |
| 4 | 1519,1 | 494 | 220 | 494 | 2233 | 2233 |
| 5 | 1519,1 | 691 | 220 | 691 | 2431 | 2431 |
As can be seen from the table, in the economy under study, an increase in government spending is compensated by an increase in tax payments.
For this, the following table is compiled:
Table 2.11. Investment multiplier modeling
| Step number | Change in consumer spending ∆C, billion rubles. | Change in investment expenses ∆I, billion rubles. | Change in national income ∆Y, billion rubles. |
Change in savings ∆S, billion rubles |
Cumulative increase in national income ∆Y∑, billion rubles. |
Cartoonist |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 1 | 440 | 440 | 101,2 | 440 | 1,0 | |
| 2 | 101,20 | 44 | 101,20 | 23,28 | 541,2 | 12,3 |
| 3 | 77,92 | 48 | 77,92 | 17,92 | 619,1 | 12,8 |
| 4 | 60,00 | 53 | 60,00 | 13,80 | 679,1 | 12,8 |
| 5 | 46,20 | 59 | 46,20 | 10,63 | 725,3 | 12,4 |
| 6 | 35,57 | 64 | 35,57 | 8,18 | 760,9 | 11,8 |
| 7 | 27,39 | 71 | 27,39 | 6,30 | 788,3 | 11,1 |
The number of calculation steps should not be less than 7.
Investment expenses for the first calculation step are taken at the level of double the value of the base period.
For the first step:
gr.3: ∆I1 = I;
gr.4: ∆Y1 = ∆I1;
gr.5: ∆S1 = ∆Y1∙(1-b);
gr.6: ∆Y∑1 = ∆Y1.
For next steps:
gr.2: ∆Ci = ∆Yi-1∙b;
gr.4: ∆Yi = ∆Ci;
gr.5: ∆Si = ∆Yi∙(1-b);
gr.6: ∆Y∑I = ∆Y∑i-1+∆Yi.
After all calculations have been carried out, the value of the investment multiplier is determined. The multiplier is determined by the ratio of the increase in equilibrium GNP to the change in the volume of investment that caused this increase.
Conclusion
Macroeconomics is a set of aggregated economic indicators collected into a specific system. In this regard, the discovery of relationships between economic parameters is the subject of macroeconomics.
The short- and long-term aspects in the economy follow from the natural rate hypothesis and are as follows: changes in aggregate demand affect output and employment only in the short run, and in the long run the economy returns to natural levels of output, employment and unemployment.
The level of employment, according to Keynes, is determined by the dynamics of effective demand, which consists of expected consumption expenditures and expected investments.
Effective demand consists of two components - the expected level of consumption and investment.
For its constant growth and its maintenance, capital expenditures (investments) must increase, designed to absorb an ever-expanding volume of savings. Moreover, the richer the society, the more acute this problem is, because the greater the amount of national income it must invest.
Keynes established the connection between investment, consumption and national income. Keynesianism defined this connection based on the concept of the multiplier. And thus, the level of national income is a function of consumer spending and investment.
J.M. Keynes considered the relationship between planned expenditures and national income as a central issue in macroeconomic analysis. In order to establish the relationship between planned expenditures and national income, he introduces the so-called general psychological law. Keynes boiled down the essence of this law to the fact that consumption grows less than income. People have a tendency to save.
The increase in disposable income (∆Yd) accordingly breaks down into the increase in consumption (∆C) and the increase in savings (∆S)
Keynes called the ratio the marginal propensity to consume and designated it as mpc. And the ratio is the marginal propensity to save, denoted as mps.
In the Keynesian model, the basic equation macroeconomic identity is the well-known equation of total expenditure: Y = C + I + G + Xn, which determines the value of nominal GNP.
In the Keynesian model, monetary policy is viewed as secondary to fiscal policy, since monetary policy has a very complex transmission mechanism: changes in the money supply lead to changes in GNP through the mechanism of changes in investment spending, which respond to interest rate dynamics.
In the Keynesian model, fiscal policy is considered the most effective means of macroeconomic stabilization, since government spending has a direct impact on the amount of aggregate demand and a strong multiplier effect on consumer spending. At the same time, taxes have a fairly effective impact on consumption and investment.
List of sources used
1. Agapova T.A., Seregina S.F. Macroeconomics.-M., "Dis", 1997
2. Selishchev A.S. Macroeconomics.-St. Petersburg, “Peter”, 2000
3. Dorbnusch R., Fischer S., Macroeconomics.-M., “Infra-M”, 1997
4. Burda M., Wiplosh Ch., Macroeconomics.-S-Pb, “Shipbuilding”, 1997
5. Lectures on macroeconomics of the transition period, Brodsky B.E., M.: "Higher School of Economics" - 2005
